{"id":30427,"date":"2026-07-21T22:27:48","date_gmt":"2026-07-21T18:27:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ampop.am\/?p=30427"},"modified":"2026-07-27T22:36:07","modified_gmt":"2026-07-27T18:36:07","slug":"armenia-2050-aging-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ampop.am\/en\/armenia-2050-aging-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"Armenia 2050: When the Need for Care Becomes a Major Economic Challenge"},"content":{"rendered":"

One of the most serious economic challenges Armenia will face in the coming decades will be population aging.<\/p>\n

As the number of older people grows, Armenia will gradually become a society in which more people will depend on healthcare, social support and care services. At the same time, the responsibility for covering these costs will fall on a relatively small share of the working class.<\/p>\n

In other words, population aging will not only change the country\u2019s age structure, but also the way the government allocates public spending. Today, a significant share of public resources is directed towards the education and development of children and young people. However, without major changes, this balance could shift in the coming decades.<\/p>\n

This outlook and the expected challenges are supported by the main 2019 National Transfer Accounts (NTA) report and the updated 2023 analysis that followed it, which also includes data from the National Time Transfer Accounts (NTTA). These reports show how much different age groups produce and consume over the course of their lives, and how these economic resources are shared among families, the government and society.<\/p>\n

As the population ages, the cost of caring for older people will place a growing burden on the government and the working-age population. The issue, therefore, is not limited to reforming social policy. It is also a question of the national budget, the labor market, productivity, and Armenia’s long-term economic stability.<\/p>\n

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Armenia\u2019s Short Productive Period: What Changed between 2019 and 2023?<\/h3>\n

economic life cycle shows during which part of a person\u2019s life they earn more than they consume, and during which part the opposite is true. To fully understand the picture, it is necessary to look at the two key reports mentioned above. Comparing them shows that economic growth has a positive effect, but that this effect was highly unequal between women and men.<\/p>\n

In 2019, across the population as a whole, a positive economic surplus, when a person produces more than they can consume, was recorded only among people aged 32 to 48.<\/p>\n

According to the updated 2023 data, increased economic activity expanded this productive age range to include people aged 26 to 51.<\/p>\n

However when the data is broken down by sex, a highly unequal picture appears. Between 2019 and 2023, only men saw a significant expansion in their productive years, from ages 26-52 to ages 24-53.<\/p>\n

Women, meanwhile, did not officially have an economic balance at any stage of their lives, even during the strong economic growth recorded in 2023. This was linked to the enormous burden of unpaid care work and women\u2019s lower participation in the labor market. In other words, women\u2019s official income never exceeded their consumption. Moreover, the deficit across women\u2019s economic life cycle actually increased because their consumption grew more than their income.<\/p>\n

Until around the ages of 24 to 26, children and young people are mostly consumers because resources are spent on their education, healthcare and other costs covered by families or the state. According to the estimates, after the age of 53, the productive group gradually shifts back into a stage where people consume more than they produce.<\/p>\n

This, in turn, creates a serious structural imbalance. The state provides free public education until a person reaches around 16 to 18 years of age. However, for men, the stage when they begin to make a positive net contribution to the economy starts much later, only at around ages 24 to 26. For women, according to the official data, that stage never begins at all.<\/p>\n

The Productive Layer is Narrow, and the Deficit is Very Large<\/h3>\n

Based on 2019 baseline data, across Armenia\u2019s entire economy, the 32-48 age productive group created a net economic benefit (surplus) of only 146 billion AMD. Meanwhile, the amount consumed but not earned (the deficit) by all other age groups reached 2.22 trillion AMD. Although the total deficit somewhat eased in 2023 due to economic activity, amounting to 1.89 trillion AMD, the structural problem of this enormous gap remains unchanged.<\/p>\n

This vast difference shows why demographic aging is not only a social issue, but also a serious risk for the state budget. When the producing layer is small (and as we have seen, mainly reliant on men\u2019s labor) and the needs of consumer groups are large, the state faces a difficult choice in the redistribution of resources.<\/p>\n

In 2050, that choice will be even more complicated.<\/p>\n

If in 2019, 61% of the economic deficit was directed towards children and youth and 39% toward the elderly, then according to forecasts, this ratio will flip by 2050. It is expected that 60% of the deficit will be driven by the needs of the elderly population, and only 40% by youth and children.<\/p>\n

This means that healthcare and social security expenditures will increase, while the number of working people bearing that burden will decrease. According to the NTA report, a significant increase in public spending in the healthcare sector is observed especially among the population of 63 years of age.<\/p>\n

The First Signs of an Aging Population in the Regions<\/h3>\n

In 2025, 505,160 people in Armenia received pensions, which accounts for about 16.4% of the country\u2019s permanent population. By region, the highest indicators are in Syunik (20.6%), Voyots Dzor (20.45%), and Lori (19.2%); that is, in these regions, pensioners are approaching or already constitute one in every 5 residents.<\/p>\n

The pension burden cannot be measured by the number of people alone. In 2025, the average pension was AMD 49,451.2. Based on this figure, it can be roughly estimated that the state spends about AMD 25 billion per month on pensions, or around AMD 300 billion per year.<\/p>\n

Naturally, the largest share of total spending goes to areas with the highest absolute number of pensioners\u2014first and foremost Yerevan, followed by the more populous regions.<\/p>\n

What makes Syunik, Vayots Dzor and Lori different is that not only is the overall volume of pension payments high, but pensioners also make up a large share of the population. This means that the effects of aging may be felt earlier in these regions through pressure on community services, the care system and the availability of workers.<\/p>\n

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The pension burden is not measured by the number of people alone. In 2025, the average pension was 49,451.2 AMD, based on which it can be roughly calculated that the state allocates about 25 billion AMD monthly for pensions, and approximately 300 billion AMD annually.<\/p>\n

The largest share of total expenditure naturally falls on those areas where the absolute number of pensioners is high\u2013 primarily Yerevan, followed by regions with large populations.<\/p>\n

The peculiarity of Syunik, Dzor, and Lori is that it is not just the total volume of payments that is high, but the share of pensioners within the population. This is why the impact of aging in these regions may be felt sooner at the level of community services, the care system, and labor shortages.<\/p>\n

Family or Career: Why Women are Forced to Make a Choice<\/h3>\n

This short period of productivity is not just an age or demographic issue. It is also a consequence of the deep gender imbalance in the labor market. This, of course, does not mean that women should sacrifice starting a family for the sake of the economy. The problem is that the system often places women in a dilemma, not allowing them to harmoniously combine motherhood and professional development.<\/p>\n

According to Artashes Shaboyan, Chief Consultant of Research at \u201cAmeria\u201d consulting company, about 60% of those officially employed in Armenia are men, while only 40% of women have jobs.<\/p>\n

In his observation, especially before the age of 30, women are often forced out of the process of work and professional development: \u201cA moment comes where they disappear from the labor market because they start a family\u2026 and are completely absorbed in solving those problems\u201d<\/p>\n

Tatevik Stepanyan, Deputy Minister of Labour and Social Affairs of Armenia, also notes that women\u2019s labour-force participation stands at 49%, compared with 70% for men. According to her, the main reason for this gap of around 20 percentage points is the unequal burden of care work.<\/p>\n

In other words, women are often not inactive. Instead, they carry out a huge amount of unpaid work, including caring for children and older people and managing the household. This work is essential to the economy, but it is not reflected in official income calculations.<\/p>\n

According to the National Time Transfer Accounts (NTTA) report, women spend up to 49 hours per week on unpaid care and household work. In practice, the amount of unpaid work carried out by women exceeds a standard full-time working week of 40 hours. This directly takes away their time and limits their ability to remain competitive in the formal labour market.<\/p>\n

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Unpaid Care Becomes a Macroeconomic Problem<\/h3>\n

The difference between the economic life cycles of men and women shows how great the impact of unpaid care is on the country\u2019s productivity.
\nIf men maintain a positive economic balance between the ages of 24 and 53, then women, according to NTA data, do not officially reach a positive economic surplus at any stage of their lives.<\/p>\n

This does not mean that women do not participate in the economy or that their economic contribution is low. On the contrary, when unpaid work is also taken into account (NTTA report), it turns out that women\u2019s total economic contribution in many stages of life (especially during the years of family formation) equals or even exceeds that of men.<\/p>\n

The Philosophy of the State Budget Is Shifting from Development to Maintenance<\/h3>\n

Population aging is changing the logic of public expenditure. In the past, a large share of public resources was expected to be invested in the development of future generations, including education, health and the development of professional skills. In the coming years, however, a growing share of those resources will be required to support the care and well-being of the older population.<\/p>\n

Tigran Jrbashyan, Director of Development at the \u201cAmeria\u201d Group of Companies, describes this as a severe imbalance.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn the past, society invested its resources in educating the younger generation. Now it is being forced to direct those resources towards the elderly in order to ensure a dignified existence. This creates a sharp imbalance.\u201d<\/p>\n

In economic terms, the state may be required to reduce spending on human development and education and redirect those resources towards the care and basic subsistence of older people. Unless the number of workers increases, this reallocation could limit opportunities for development.<\/p>\n

What Solutions Is the Government Proposing?<\/h3>\n

These risks are reflected in Armenia\u2019s 2024\u20132040 Demographic Strategy. The strategy is built around two main priorities: expanding the productive base and promoting active ageing.<\/p>\n

In simple terms, one objective is to bring as many people as possible into the labour market whose economic potential is currently underused. The other is to create conditions that enable older people to remain economically capable and socially active for longer.<\/p>\n

In this context, the government is also seeking to reduce the burden of care that falls on women.<\/p>\n

According to Deputy Minister Tatevik Stepanyan, more than 2,300 women have received training in recent years through programmes implemented jointly with United Nations agencies, helping them restore their professional skills and return to the labour market.<\/p>\n

The government is also developing care infrastructure. Alongside the construction of schools and the expansion of kindergartens, around 10 nursery groups for children under the age of two have been reopened on a pilot basis.<\/p>\n

However, relying on nurseries alone may carry risks. According to international research, separating very young children from their families for long hours each day may contribute to psychological and behavioural difficulties. A modern approach therefore focuses not on isolating children, but on creating family-friendly workplaces that equally protect a mother\u2019s right to work and a child\u2019s right to healthy development.<\/p>\n

Following this approach, the government plans to provide financial support to organizations with 100 or more employees so that they can establish childcare rooms on their premises. As a first step, the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs is establishing such a room within the Ministry itself.<\/p>\n

Another innovative measure has already been included in the Demographic Strategy: recognizing unpaid family care as a formal economic activity.<\/p>\n

For example, when grandparents take responsibility for childcare after a woman returns to work, the government plans to provide them with financial compensation. In this way, the care work performed by older family members becomes a form of paid employment.<\/p>\n

Unpaid Care is Ignored in the Calculation of Work Experience<\/h3>\n

One of the most important directions being discussed is giving a monetary value to unpaid domestic work\u2013 monetization. This is work that is mainly performed at home, often by women, but it is not paid and does not appear in official economic calculations.<\/p>\n

According to Tatevik Stepanyan, Deputy Minister of Labor and Social Affairs, today such work is not considered paid work, nor is it viewed as a basis for work experience at retirement age.<\/p>\n

\u201cOur goal is to monetize all of this and turn it into a legally applicable pratice\u2013 first at the level of legislation and then at the level of services,\u201d Stepanyan notes.<\/p>\n

In other words, the goal is to value this work in monetary terms and anchor it in law so that it works in practice.<\/p>\n

If this approach is applied in practice, a woman\u2019s informal and domestic care work can be clearly valued and, in the future, also considered in the calculation of work experience.<\/p>\n

This idea is of vital importance for women who, not because of idleness but because of caring for children or the elderly, have remained out of the formal labor market for many years. Without this change, they face the risk of receiving a minimum pension in the future, despite the economically valuable and difficult work performed throughout their lives.<\/p>\n

The Problem is Not Only the Budget, but Freedom of Choice<\/h3>\n

Beyond the figures and economic calculations, this issue also has a human rights dimension and concerns the right to live with dignity.<\/p>\n

According to Lusine Sargsyan, Head of UNFPA in Armenia Country Office, the issue was discussed for many years mainly from a human rights perspective, and only recently has the financial dimension been added to the debate.<\/p>\n

Tatevik Stepanyan also emphasizes that, although the country\u2019s economic growth increasingly requires greater participation by women in the labour market, women\u2019s freedom of choice must remain a fundamental and non-negotiable principle of state policy.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe should simply ask the woman whether she wants to return to the labour market or whether she wants to stay at home and care for her children.\u201d<\/p>\n

According to Tigran Jrbashyan, the solution is not to impose one choice at the expense of the other. Conditions must be created that allow people to realize their full potential without having to make major sacrifices.<\/p>\n

This requires accessible care centres, flexible working arrangements\u2013 including opportunities for remote and part-time work\u2013 recognition of invisible labour, and solutions that enable older people to remain engaged in social and economic life for longer.<\/p>\n

Why This Is Becoming One of Armenia\u2019s Main Economic Issues for 2050<\/h3>\n

A bleak scenario for Armenia in 2050 is not inevitable. However, it could become a reality if the state does not adapt its policies in time to an aging society and a shrinking working population.<\/p>\n

If the number of people creating economic value does not increase, while the heavy burden of care continues to fall on families\u2013 and particularly on women\u2013 public resources in the future may be directed not towards development, but almost entirely towards social survival and care for older people.<\/p>\n

Under these conditions, relying on the narrow productive group aged 26 to 51\u2013 made up mainly of men\u2013 would be extremely risky. It would place an unsustainable burden on the state budget and reduce investment in development.<\/p>\n

For Armenia, the solution is to broaden participation in the economy by bringing women\u2019s underused potential back into the labour market, recognizing the value of unpaid care work, actively engaging healthy older people, and restructuring the budget in a way that preserves dignified care without reducing investment in the future.<\/p>\n

Ultimately, population aging is not only an issue affecting older people. Above all, it raises questions about who will work, who will provide care, who will pay, and how the state will allocate its limited resources over the coming decades.<\/p>\n

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By Suren Deheryan<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Visualization and interactive dashboard by Karine Darbinyan<\/strong><\/em>
The main image was created using an AI tool<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

This article was developed by Ampop.am within the framework of the “Demographic Resilience: Expanding Women’s Capacities and Choices through Data-driven Policies” Project, implemented by UNFPA. This project is funded with UK International Development from the UK government. This material has been funded by UK International Development from the UK government; however, the views expressed do not necessarily reflect the UK government\u2019s official policies.<\/em><\/p>\n

Note:<\/strong>\u00a0All materials published on\u00a0Ampop.am<\/strong>\u00a0and visuals carrying the\u00a0Ampop Media<\/strong> branding may not be reproduced on other audiovisual platforms without prior agreement with Ampop Media and\/or the executive team of Journalists for the Future.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

One of the most serious economic challenges Armenia will face in the coming decades will be population aging. As the number of older people grows, Armenia will gradually become a society in which more people will depend on healthcare, social support and care services. At the same time, the responsibility for covering these costs will […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":30504,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[49,237],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30427","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","category-social"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t