Under high-emission scenarios, Armenia\u2019s average annual temperature could increase by approximately 4.7\u00b0C by 2100 compared to the 1961\u20131990 baseline, while precipitation may decrease by about 8.3%.<\/p>\n
In practical terms, this means a hotter\u2014and in some regions, drier\u2014climate. Agriculture is particularly vulnerable, as heat and drought simultaneously affect soil moisture, irrigation demand, and crop yields.<\/p>\n
A similar trend is observed in Azerbaijan, though precipitation projections are more uncertain. Temperatures are expected to continue rising, with increases<\/a> of 2\u20134\u00b0C by 2100 depending on the scenario.<\/p>\n By 2050, warming in western regions alone could reach 2.49\u00b0C, intensifying water scarcity. Both countries are clearly moving toward hotter climates.<\/p>\n In Azerbaijan<\/a>, agriculture employs more than one-third of the workforce but contributes relatively little to the economy. In 2023, it accounted for 35.5% of employment but only 5.5% of GDP.<\/p>\n This imbalance highlights agriculture\u2019s social importance as a provider of jobs, while also revealing its low economic efficiency.<\/p>\n Armenia<\/a> shows a similar pattern. In 2023, 52.3% of employment was in agriculture, while its contribution to GDP stood at just 8.5%.<\/p>\n According to Emil Gevorgyan, head of the JUSTUS Research and Consulting Foundation, the problem also lies in how governments conceptualize the sector.<\/p>\n He argues that agriculture should not be viewed merely as a source of income, but primarily as a foundation of food security.<\/p>\n \u201cIn this region, the state cannot fully rely on the idea that it will produce high-value goods and import essential food with the proceeds,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n If agriculture is treated as a strategic sector, policy tools\u2014from crop allocation to support for domestic production\u2014would also change.<\/p>\n Azerbaijani economist Khalid Kerimli points<\/a> to a similar issue. While around 40% of the workforce is employed in agriculture, its contribution to GDP remains low, indicating limited productivity.<\/p>\n \u201cThe issue is not just employment numbers,\u201d he notes. \u201cAgriculture remains a low-efficiency sector, reliant on outdated methods and increasingly exposed to climate risks.\u201d<\/p>\n Azerbaijan\u2019s agricultural output is concentrated in a few key crops. In 2023, the country produced around 3.2 million tons of grain, including 1.8 million tons of wheat.<\/p>\n It also produces significant volumes of potatoes, tomatoes, grapes, and cotton.<\/p>\n Despite this, the country remains dependent on imports. In 2023, Azerbaijan imported approximately $2.6 billion worth of agricultural products, with wheat accounting for about 11.8%.<\/p>\n This suggests that even with domestic production, the food system is not self-sufficient\u2014an issue that could worsen under climate pressure.<\/p>\n Azerbaijan\u2019s Deputy Minister of Agriculture, Ilhama Gadimova, has acknowledged that export growth alone is insufficient.<\/p>\n She emphasizes the need for structural reforms: infrastructure modernization, efficient land use, adoption of innovative technologies, and revised state support mechanisms.<\/p>\n In Armenia, the issue has its own nuances.<\/p>\n According to Emil Gevorgyan, Armenia has natural advantages\u2014diverse soils and climate zones\u2014but these often fail to translate into systematic results.<\/p>\n \u201cThe problem is not a lack of resources, but a fragmented approach to agriculture rather than a systemic one,\u201d he explains.<\/p>\n Climate change affects agriculture primarily through water.<\/p>\n In Armenia, World Bank estimates<\/a> from 2024 suggest that water losses in irrigation systems range between 20% and 67%.<\/p>\n Government data show that of the 3.3 billion cubic meters of water withdrawn annually, only 2.6 billion are actually used\u2014meaning over 22% is lost before reaching end users.<\/p>\n At the same time, 86.2% of water consumption goes to agriculture, fisheries, and forestry, making these sectors particularly vulnerable.<\/p>\n In Azerbaijan, the situation is comparable.<\/p>\n Riad Akhundzade, a representative of the State Water Resources Agency, stated in February 2026 that reservoirs hold around 16\u201317 billion cubic meters of water, while annual consumption is 11\u201312 billion cubic meters.<\/p>\n \u201cThis means reserves are sufficient for roughly one year,\u201d he warned, noting that infrastructure losses remain a major issue.<\/p>\n Environmental expert Rovshan Abbasov adds<\/a> that more than 90% of food production in Azerbaijan depends on irrigation, while water losses exceed 50%.<\/p>\n Without transitioning to modern systems such as drip irrigation, demand will continue to grow while losses deepen.<\/p>\n Climate change impacts not only water availability but also crop productivity.<\/p>\n In Armenia, projections suggest<\/a> declining yields for wheat, potatoes, and grapes by 2050.<\/p>\n In Azerbaijan, wheat, cotton, and several fruit crops are at risk.<\/p>\n These changes are driven not only by rising temperatures but also by unpredictable rainfall and more frequent droughts.<\/p>\n However, Gevorgyan cautions that yield declines are not always directly caused by climate change.<\/p>\n \u201cEven in favorable years, losses can occur due to poor equipment, weak infrastructure, or lack of knowledge,\u201d he notes.<\/p>\n In many cases, climate pressure simply accelerates existing systemic problems.<\/p>\n Extreme weather events\u2014droughts, hailstorms, and frost\u2014are already causing significant economic damage.<\/p>\n In Armenia, losses in some years reach tens of billions of drams.<\/p>\n This increases risk, particularly for small farmers.<\/p>\nAgriculture: Social Backbone, Economic Constraint<\/h3>\n
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<\/p>\nProduction Without Self-Sufficiency<\/h3>\n
Water: The Key Limiting Resource<\/h3>\n
Climate Change Already Affecting Yields<\/h3>\n
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<\/p>\nThe Cost of Extreme Weather<\/h3>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/ampop.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/1.jpg\")
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